Understanding Implied Odds - Rafe Furst

Most players know what pot odds and implied pot odds (aka implied odds) are, and how to calculate them. Just about every poker book or website has a section on the topic. Still, I often see people making mistakes in calculating implied odds - especially when playing online. Too often, implied odds are invoked as a reason for a play when "wishful thinking" would be the more accurate description of the situation.

A perfect example came up in a recent tournament on Full Tilt Poker. The table was short-handed and playing rather loose pre-flop, but tight after the flop. The blinds were getting high, and a hand developed where we got to see a showdown between a loose player who I'll call "Loosey" and a player I'll call "Impy."

Impy had no pair and only an inside straight draw on the flop, yet he called a pot-sized bet from Loosey. Impy hit his straight on the turn, but was only able to extract a small amount from his opponent and ended up checking down the river. Impy's fuzzy logic on the flop was that, although he was behind, if he hit his hand he'd get paid off at greater odds than it required to chase his four-outer. As we saw in the hand, he got part of what he wanted (the straight), but failed to extract enough from his opponent to make his call on the flop reasonable. Furthermore, Loosey was short-stacked, had top-pair with a weak kicker, and was unlikely to have paid off much more than he did.

So, what can Impy do to improve his game? Here are some guidelines for using implied odds to greater advantage:
Only Play Against Big Stacks

When two players are contesting a pot, their maximum implied odds are exactly the same: the size of the shorter stack. If you and your opponent both have large stacks relative to the blinds and antes, your implied odds are much better than if one of you is sitting on a smaller stack, simply because there are more chips that can be committed to the pot during the hand. Players who are short-stacked tend to play tighter and are less likely to try to pick off a possible bluff because they don't have any extra chips to spare, unlike a tall stack.
Don't Play Short-Handed

The more opponents there are at your table, the greater the likelihood that one or more of them will pick up a good hand, be in on the flop, and ultimately pay you off when you hit your draw. In short-handed or heads-up situations, you have to get very lucky: first you have to hit your hand, then you have to hope your opponent has a good enough hand to pay you off. My advice is, unless you have a really good read on your opponents in the hand, don't even consider implied odds unless you are at a full 9- or 10-handed table.
Play Against Tight-Aggressive Players

Implied odds are greatest against tight-aggressive players. Why? Because these are the players who are likely to have strong hands after the flop, and are likely to commit a lot of chips to defend their good hands. Tight-aggressive players are also going to be involved in smaller pots on the flop, and will check-raise more often than loose players when out of position. This gives you free-card opportunities, which improve your implied odds. Psychologically, once involved in a hand, tight players may have a harder time letting go after the flop than loose players who are always in action. Over time, those loose players are going to have a harder time finding a reason to play with you after the flop.

The key to playing against tight-aggressive players after the flop is to keep the pot as small as possible until you hit your draw. If they put a lot of pressure on you, you're better off folding your draw and waiting for a better situation. Not every hand can be played profitably after the flop.
Incorporate Bluffs and Semi-Bluffs

If you are drawing on the flop, you should be betting and raising instead of passively checking and calling to hit your hand. This gives you two ways to win by:

* Forcing your opponents to fold, or
* Hitting your draw

This is called a semi-bluff. The only time you should play passively is if you think a free card will help your situation more than getting your opponent to fold.

Another thing to remember is that you are definitely going to miss your draws more often than not. In these cases, you should sometimes be bluffing, but the question is, how much and how frequently?

Let's say the pot has $100 in it and you have $100 left, and you are deciding whether to bluff on the river. You're giving your opponent 2-1 odds to call you, which is exactly how often you should bluff in that situation (two times for every one that you don't).

How do you choose the right balance between keeping the pot small after the flop and playing aggressively as I am advocating here? That's the art, and it requires lots of practice and a good read on your opponents. You may want to pick up Sklansky's Theory of Poker to learn more about optimal bluffing frequency and semi-bluffs. By employing these techniques correctly, you can vastly increase your implied odds and positive expectation.

Table Talk - Gavin Smith

I talk a lot at the table. I like meeting people, and poker tournaments give me the opportunity to chat with a lot of nice folks. The conversations I have between hands are not just pleasant - they can also be informative. What a player shares about himself will often determine how I'll play against him down the line.

For example, say I'm playing in a $10,000 tournament. I ask the young person to my left how he bought into the tournament and he tells me that he won a $30 satellite. Based on that piece of information, I can make some assumptions. He's probably not especially experienced. Most active players don't bother with low buy-in tournaments. He likely doesn't have a huge bankroll, so he'd probably be perfectly happy to cash in the event; he doesn't need to win to feel he had a successful tournament.

Against this player, I'm probably going to run some bluffs when I think he's only got a moderate hand. I'm also going to be willing to make some pretty big lay-downs against this guy. I seriously doubt he's going to put in a lot chips without a very strong hand.

Now imagine that I ask a man at my table how he got into the tournament and he tells me he bought in directly. I ask him what he does for a living, and he says he's a bookmaker in Dallas.

I've got to assume that this guy's willing to gamble. He's probably not afraid of a big bluff or a big call. Against him, I'm going to have to call more liberally and avoid making any of my own big bluffs. I may even check some reasonably big hands to avoid getting raised off my hand.

These are just two examples of what you can learn by drawing your opponents out and listening carefully to what they have to say. Every piece of information you gain at the table is something you can use to your advantage.

Gavin Smith

Starting from Zero - Chris Ferguson

I'm almost a year into an experiment on Full Tilt Poker. I'm attempting to turn $0 into a $10,000 bankroll. With no money to start with, I had no choice but to start out playing Freerolls. Starting out, I'd often manage to win a dollar or two, but I'd quickly get busted and have to start over again. It took some time but, after awhile, I was eventually able to graduate to games that required an actual buy-in.

Even today, people don't believe it's really me when I sit down at Full Tilt's small stakes games. They ask what I'm doing down here, and often tell me stories about how they turned $5 into $500 or $100 into $1,000. Usually, these stories end with the person telling me that they went broke. There's no surprise there. These folks tried to quickly build a bankroll by gambling. They'd play in a game that was beyond their bankroll and, if they happened to win, they'd move up to a higher limit and risk it all one more time. Inevitably, they'd lose a few big hands and go broke.

For me, this experiment isn't about the money. It's about showing how, with proper bankroll management, you can start from nothing and move up to the point where you're playing in some pretty big games. I know it's possible because I did it once before, turning $1 into $20,000.

To ensure that I keep my bankroll intact, I've adopted some key rules:

* I'll never buy into a cash game or a Sit & Go with more than 5 percent of my total bankroll (there is an exception for the lowest limits: I'm allowed to buy into any game with a buy-in of $2.50 or less).
* I won't buy into a multi-table tournament for more than 2 percent of my total bankroll and I'm allowed to buy into any multi-table tournament that costs $1.
* If at any time during a No-Limit or Pot-Limit cash-game session the money on the table represents more than 10 percent of my total bankroll, I must leave the game when the blinds reach me.

I think a lot of players would do well to apply these rules. One great benefit from this approach to bankroll management is that it ensures you'll be playing in games you can afford. You'll never play for very long in a game that's over your head because, when you're losing, you'll have no choice but to drop down to a smaller game. You can continue to sharpen your game at that lower limit until your bankroll allows you to move up and take another shot. These rules also prevent you from being completely decimated by a bad run of cards.

Dropping down and playing lower limits is difficult for a lot of players. They view it as a failure and their egos get in the way. Many want to remain at the level they'd been playing and win back their losses. But this can lead to some pretty severe tilt - and that can go through a bankroll in a hurry. I know that dropping down was difficult for me in my run from $1 to $20,000. When I first played in the $25/$50 game, I lost. Sticking to my rules, I dropped down to the $10/$25 game. I had a losing streak there and had to go down to $5/$10. That was tough. After playing $25/$50, a $5/$10 game was boring to me.

But I had the discipline to stick to my rules, and that motivated me to play better at the lower levels. I really didn't want to lose any more because I knew the consequences: I'd have to play even lower and work even harder to get back to where I'd been, which could take as long as a month. If you ever find yourself bored or frustrated playing at the lower limits, you're obviously not playing well. Take a break from the game. Often, stepping away can give you a fresh perspective and heightened motivation to play well when you return.

There are a couple of more tips I'd like to share regarding bankroll management. First, you should never play in a game that is beyond your bankroll simply because the game seems to be soft that day. It's never soft enough to risk money that puts your bankroll in jeopardy. The other point is that you should avoid playing in games that are at the top of your bankroll limits, when a lower game offers more opportunity for profit.

I'm confident that by sticking to these sound bankroll management rules, I'll make it to my $10,000 goal. These rules are sure to help you as well, as you pursue your own poker ambitions. So, if you want to start your own quest - or play against me while I'm continuing with mine - come open a free account at Full Tilt Poker and look for me online. But hurry, because I'm hoping I won't be in the lower limits for too much longer.

Looking at the Long-Term - Erik Seidel

Tournament poker can be a very tough business. No matter how good you are, you're bound to encounter long periods where things don't go well. On the tournament circuit, even the best players can go several months - or even a couple of years - between significant cashes. These dry spells can be tough to deal with if you don't develop a solid mental approach to the game.

I think the down times are particularly difficult for younger players who have some success early in their careers. They come to expect great results and can become overwhelmed when things go badly in a long string of tournaments. They may grow frustrated and are apt to assume they're making mistakes. They make changes in their games that aren't well thought out, and they suffer because of it.

To endure the long, tough stretches, serious players need to understand that bad runs are inevitable. They're part of this business. And while there's something to be said for going into every tournament with a positive attitude, it's also important to be realistic. If you expect to win every tournament you enter, the disappointment that accompanies repeated bust outs could be very damaging to your psyche. I know that early in my career, my confidence suffered when I went through a rough stretch.

Over time, however, I learned to focus my attention in productive ways. Now, when I'm playing in a tournament, I concentrate on making the best decisions I can. I try to approach every hand in a thorough and effective manner. If my focus is good at the table, I can be honest with myself as I assess what I'm doing well and where I need improvement. I'm not likely to fall into the traps that ensnare other players. Many refuse to admit mistakes and insist that a bad run is due to bad luck alone. Others believe they're playing well when their results are good, even though they're playing poorly and are benefiting from a great run of cards.

After a tournament is over, I'm quick to remember that tournament poker requires the temperament of a marathoner, not a sprinter. If I play well and consistently make good decisions, I'll be rewarded, though it may be a long time before I see the results I'm looking for.

Playing Mixed Games - Jennifer Harman

Despite what you see on TV, there's much more to poker than just Hold 'em. The great players are judged by how they play all the games. In the big cash games at the Bellagio, we play an assortment of games every night and at the World Series of Poker*, they've introduced a $50,000 buy-in HORSE tournament that attracts many of the world's top professionals.

This week, Full Tilt Poker will begin spreading mixed cash games for players of all limits. It's a great opportunity to experience the fun and challenge that comes from playing a variety of games in a single session without putting a huge dent in your bankroll. While a lot of fun, mixed games do have some challenges and, for this tip, I want to give some suggestions that will help you starting out.

One of the hardest things for new mixed games players to become comfortable with is the flow of play. With games switching every 10 hands, it can be difficult to instantly adjust your thinking in order to concentrate fully on the game at hand. It will take some time and experience, but eventually, you'll be able to go from Omaha Hi/Lo to Razz and be ready to play your best as soon as the games switch.

Until you're comfortable with the game flow, here are some pointers that can help make the switch to mixed games a little easier:

* Be sure you're playing the right game! I play a lot of HORSE Sit & Gos at Full Tilt Poker and, in almost every one, there's a player or two who makes the mistake of playing Razz when the game is Stud, or vice-versa. Even in the big game at the Bellagio, this sort of mix-up happens all the time.

* Work on your weakest games. If you find that your Stud Hi/Lo game isn't as strong as it could be, spend some time at the Stud Hi/Lo tables and work on improving your skills. Put in enough hours at each individual game so that you're grasping the subtleties of all of them when you play a mixed game.

* Play stronger in your best games than in your weaker games. You may be a master at Stud and feel you can play a lot of different hands well in that game. But if your Omaha Hi/Lo is relatively weak, you'll need to tighten up in that game and play only premium starting hands. Look for starting hands like A-A-2-3 suited or A-2-K-Q that offer the potential to make both the nut high and nut low, allowing you to scoop as many pots as possible. Or in Razz, for example, stick to starting hands with three cards of 8 or less - if that game isn't your strength.

If you're anything like me, you'll find that it's tough to go back to any one game once you start playing mixed games. You'll miss the mental challenge and fun that comes from this type of poker.

Pot-Size Manipulation - Gavin Smith

One of the key skills that winning big-bet players bring to the table is the ability to manipulate the size of the pot. They manage to play big pots when they have big hands, and keep the pot smaller when their holdings are more modest. If you think carefully about your betting throughout a hand, you can set yourself up to play a pot that's appropriate for the strength of your hand.

For starters, let's look at a hand that gets a lot of players in trouble - a big pocket pair. Generally, with any one pair, you should be looking to play a medium-sized pot. Of course, you're happy enough to get all of your money in pre-flop with Aces, but beyond that, you should try to avoid playing huge pots with any one pair. Here's an example of how you might manage the size of the pot while holding Aces.

Say that you raise pre-flop with pocket Aces and you're called by the big blind. The flop comes down J-6-3 rainbow, and the blind checks to you. You bet three-quarters of the pot and the big blind calls.

At this point, you can assume your opponent has some kind of hand. Maybe he has a pocket pair or he hit top pair on the flop. The other possibility is that he hit a set on the flop and you're in very bad shape. Given these likely hands, I think that checking behind your opponent if he checks to you on the turn is the best play. You avoid the possibility of losing a monster if you're check-raised by a set. And if he does have a pair, you're not giving away a whole lot of value by giving the free card. He may have two or five outs, which makes him a pretty big dog.

When you check the turn, you do so with the plan of calling a reasonable bet on the river. And if he checks to you on the river, you can put in a small value bet. At that point, your hand would be pretty well disguised, so he is likely to pay you off if he has anything at all.

So in this case, keeping the pot small will get you pretty good value when you're ahead and help you avoid disaster when you're behind.

Now let's look at another type of hand that players commonly misplay - a flopped monster. Say you're in the small blind in a No-Limit cash game. There are four limpers, including the small blind, and you check your option with A-T. The flop is huge for you - A-A-T. You have what is almost certain to be the best hand at showdown. Many players choose to check in this spot, fearing that a bet a will kill their action. And it very well might - it's possible that everyone will just fold. But this is a situation where you want to give yourself the chance to win a big pot. You want someone to put in a lot of money on the turn and river while drawing dead, and that will only be possible if you start building a pot on the flop. In this situation, you've just got to hope that someone is holding the case Ace or decides to draw to a gutshot. So bet two-thirds of the pot on the flop and hope for the best.

Slow-playing might get you a few chips when you catch someone stabbing. But that would win you a tiny pot, and with this hand, you're hoping to get a good portion of someone's stack. You can only do that by betting and building a pot.

In the course of a hand think about what you can do to keep the pot appropriate to the strength of your hand. A timely check or a thoughtful bet can aid you in getting the most out of your hands.

Betting out of Position - Gus Hansen

Every Hold 'em strategy guide talks about the importance of positional advantage. The standard thinking is that the player who acts last has more information than his opponents, so he'll have a better sense of where he stands in a hand and can, therefore, make better decisions. There's no doubt that this is true, but it's important to understand that the power that comes with position is often granted to the late-position player by the early-position player.

To see what I mean, consider a pretty typical No-Limit hold 'em hand. Say that I'm in the big blind with 7s-8s - a nice, flop-worthy hand. The player on the button raises to three times the big blind and I decide to call. Many players would check the flop under almost any circumstances. But, by checking, you give control to the late-position player. He can bet whether or not he has a hand, putting you in a tough spot if you don't get a piece of the flop.

In a hand like this, I believe it's best to look at the flop and ask, "Is it likely that these cards helped my opponent?" Once I have an answer to that question, I can decide how to proceed.

If the flop is Ah-Kd-9c, I'd probably just check and fold to a bet, as my opponent was likely raising with big cards and caught a piece of the flop. However, if the flop is 9c-5h-2d, I'd probably be more skeptical. I know that in Hold 'em, two unpaired hole cards will fail to make a pair on the flop about 66 percent of the time, and this seems to be a flop that the pre-flop raiser might have missed.

If I suspect my opponent didn't connect, I'm going to take the initiative and bet out about half the size of the pot. Betting here with my gutshot draw offers several advantages. First, I might take the pot down right here, and I'm always happy when a semi-bluff forces a fold. But even if I get a call from my opponent, I've forced him to react. That gives me a chance to pick up a read. If my opponent seems uneasy, I might continue with my semi-bluff on the turn and try again to pick up the pot. Or, if I feel my opponent is strong, I can check and fold to any bet on the turn if I fail to make my hand.

Stabbing at pots when out of position can be very lucrative. In tournaments, I'll open-raise out of position fairly frequently because I think there's a lot of power in being the first one to fire at the pot on the flop. I pick up a lot of small pots that way.

As you work on your Hold 'em game, remember that you don't have to give the advantage in the hand to the player in late position. Look for opportunities to bet out and seize the initiative.

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